Election 2008 Final Prediction

Final Zogby poll shows McCain losing Florida by a whisker and McCain trailing by 11 points. Accordingly, I am amending my prediction to a likely Obama win in Florida leaving 200 electoral votes for McCain and 338 for Obama although there is certainly still a chance of a McCain win there. What this poll shows is that contrary to popular wisdom the late breaking voters are going overwhelmingly for Obama as McCain's numbers have remained relatively static over the last few days while Obama's have been steadily rising. Also, given the fact that McCain is tied with Obama in Missouri and North Carolina, he is at serious risk of losing those two states as well given the fact that the few remaining undecideds are breaking for Obama which would put him down as low as 174 electoral votes and give Obama a 364 electoral vote tally which is about the same margin of victory as Bill Clinton over GHW Bush in 1992. Given, Zogby's double digit lead for Obama, I believe a McCain loss of both states is at least 50% and perhaps even higher than that. Based on this poll, we are looking at a 54-43% Obama victory today in the popular election which would make a McCain tally of 200 electoral votes all the more impressive. My gut feeling is either Zogby's battleground poll is wrong or his popular vote margin is wrong. Since I am an optimist I choose to believe that his popular vote margin is wrong. For example, in 1992, Clinton won by only 5.3% and yet amassed an electoral vote tally more than 200 electoral votes more than President GHW Bush. In 1996 which has been the election I have been comparing this one to all along, Clinton defeated Bob Dole by 8.5 points and Dole ended up with only 159 electoral votes. My point here is that if the Zogby state by state polls are correct, we should be looking at about a five point margin of victory for Obama not an 11 point margin speaking from a historical perspective. I have noted this disparity in previous Zogby polls and I have not seen him convincingly demonstrate the disparity. So I guess I am still holding out for McCain limiting Obama's margin of victory assuming Zogby's electoral vote estimates are correct. But other polls appear to be bearing out the same result as Zogby. For example, yahoo news is showing McCain winning the same states as Zogby.

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

The only difference is that they are showing massively Republican Idaho as no data available but of course Idaho is a definite win for McCain so really they are showing the exact same thing as Zogby a 338-200 electoral vote win by Obama. They apparently use the same data as Realclearpolitics.com which has the same margin and the same popular vote margin of 7.8% for Obama. I am going to modify the Realclearpolitics polling average numbers and predict a 53-45% victory margin for Obama and up to 200 electoral votes for McCain. How McCain could lose by 8 points and still win almost half the states (22-24 total) is beyond me. Again, a pretty impressive electoral vote tally for McCain all things considered. Clearly this demonstrates a growing divide in this country between red and blue states.

May God bless our Republican candidates for Congress and bless them with close victories tonight so we can keep the margins close enough to take back at least one house of Congress in 2010!

Call to Unite in Support of McCain-Palin Ticket

Gov. Sarah Palin has long been a solid conservative. She gave an outstanding speech at the Republican National Convention and polls show that she won the Vice Presidential debate this past week. She is pro-life without exception and very pro-Second Amendment. She is a devout Christian and supports teaching creationism in schools. She supports abstinence only sex-education. She doesn’t believe in Al Gore’s hot air that global warming is a manmade phenomenon which is refreshing since the evidence indicates that we may have entered a global cooling trend several years ago.

After her son was called to serve in Iraq, Palin asked that graduates of a ministry program at her church pray that troops in Iraq are being sent on a "task that is from God", a remark which religion experts say has been misinterpreted by the liberal media operatives like Charlie Gibson to make it appear that she believes we are fighting a holy war in Iraq, when in fact her statements on the war have been much more questioning until the time McCain picked her to serve as his vice presidential running mate in a brilliant maneuver which has succeeded in uniting the conservative base of the Republican Party behind his candidacy. Palin has since clarified her views on the war by echoing Abraham Lincoln’s time immemorial statement, “let us not pray that God is on our side in a war or any other time, but let us pray that we are on God's side”.

She reportedly served as the Buchanan for President state chairwoman in 1996 and raised money for him and supported him briefly in 1999. During the 2008 presidential primary, she even heaped praises upon the Republican that neoconservative Republicans love to hate--Ron Paul. She did not support McCain in either of his two contested presidential primaries in 2000 or 2008. With that kind of Reaganite conservative record, I feel duty-bound to support the McCain-Palin ticket which I believe alone offers Americans hope for the future.

But as Pat Buchanan has pointed out, she is relatively unschooled in matters of foreign policy opening up the possibility that the neocons will succeed in re-educating her in accordance with their own ideological tenets. I like to believe she is only parroting the McCain line on these and other issues because she has to in order to maximize her presidential prospects for future elections and be in a position to make a difference for the conservative cause if she is elected Vice President—a small difference with McCain at the helm to be sure, but a difference nevertheless and the potential to be elected as President in her own right four to eight years from now and usher in a new era of principled Reagan conservatism which would be a major departure from what we have seen from our leaders in Washington, DC over the past several years.

Since the Republican Party remains the only hope for a return to conservative governance, even the chance that one of our own may be elected Vice President or even President is worth pulling the lever for John McCain in this fall’s election. It is time for conservatives to come home to the GOP and vote Republican in this most crucial election in our lifetime in which the values we hold dear hang by a thread with the frightening specter of Barack Hussein Obama in the White House where he would be in a position to implement an unprecedented assault on our country, our military and our God-given liberties.

Obama Most Inexperienced Major Party Presidential Nominee in 56 Years

Senator Fred Thompson’s critique of Barack Hussein Obama as the most liberal, most inexperienced nominee to ever run for President largely rings true. Obama is without question the most extreme, radical, racist, anti-American major party presidential nominee in American history. He is also the most inexperienced major party presidential nominee in over half a century. Governor Sarah Palin's 11 years of elective experience versus Obama's 12 years should not be an issue except to underscore the fact that Obama is the most inexperienced major party presidential nominee in 68 years. Were it not for the fact that he had only a third of the experience in Congress that Dan Quayle had when he ran for Vice President, McCain's selection of Gov. Palin with her two years experience as Governor--half of Romney's experience would not have been possible.

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Thompson: Obama 'most liberal, most inexperienced nominee to ever run for president'
Politico, 9-2-08

In a clear signal that Republicans have shed concerns about appearing overly political following Hurricane Gustav, Fred Thompson tonight will offer a full-throated denunciation of Barack Obama. Obama, Thompson is to say in planned remarks provided to Politico, is a “history-marking nominee for president.” “History-making in that he is the most liberal, most inexperienced nominee to ever run for president.” And in a reference to Obama’s speech this summer in Berlin, Thompson will compare the two nominees to paint the Democrat as bolstering anti-American sentiment abroad. “The respect he is given around the world is not because of a teleprompter speech designed to appeal to American critics abroad, but because of decades of clearly demonstrated character and statesmanship,” he’ll say of John McCain. Broadening his critique, Thompson will also echo a new RNC ad released today that seeks to link Obama to a Congress disliked by many Americans. “Apparently they believe that he would match up well with the history-making Democratic-controlled Congress,” Thompson is to say. “History-making because it is the least accomplished and most unpopular Congress in our nation’s history.”

Fox News--Bush Approval Rating Drops to All-time Low

Latest Fox News poll has Bush dropping from 32% two weeks ago to an all time low of 26% this week which is very bad news for the Republicans. What is most significant about this poll is that Fox News has had a longtime penchant for over-representing Republicans in their survey results a penchant which they appear to have corrected. Also significant in this poll is only 57% of Republicans approve of Bush's job performance again an all-time low. this spells trouble not only for McCain, but for GOP hopes of minimizing our losses in both houses of Congress in November.

Honestly, I am beginning to think that all the cards are arrayed against McCain including electoral history itself. Although he is only 5.7 points behind Obama, it is difficult to see how he beats Obama in November so long as the financial crisis and abysmally low Bush approval ratings continue. McCain for all his faults was without a doubt the Republican presidential candidate with the best chance of getting elected in the general election because he is the one who is best known for his independence which usually has meant his willingness to side with the Democrats on key issues.

The bad news is that Obama is the most radical, extremist, racist Marxist major party presidential candidate in American history and that he is likely to win election as our next President and begin a crisis which will may well threaten the very survival of our great country. The good news is that the fact that he is the most ultraliberal Democrat presidential nominee in US history (as signified by the fact that he has been endorsed by so many of our Communist and Islamist enemies at home and abroad is precisely what is preventing Obama from getting over the magic 50% polling number which any other Democrat including Hillary would have reached by now so McCain is very lucky to have Obama as his opponent rather than someone more dare I say "mainstream" like Al Gore who might have defeated him in a landslide.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/092408_poll1.pdf

Nervous GOP Urges McCain to Attack Obama

McCain is in trouble. The Palin bubble in the polls has burst. The financial crisis and the unpopularity of the President is killing him in the polls and the campaign is starting to worry about his vice presidential pick, Sarah Palin who is a wonderful conservative that we all love and support, but may not be well-versed enough on the issues to hold her own against seasoned Senator Biden in tomorrow night's vice presidential debate. With a 5.7% lead in the national polls, Obama is now leading in a number of red states, not only Ohio, Colorado and Florida but {gasp} Virginia and North Carolina which Bush won by 12.4% only four years ago! If McCain doesn't start playing defense and going to those states instead of wasting his time on impossible to win blue states as he is currently doing, many of those previously red states could well be lost to Obama on Election night. Also, disturbing is that for the first time, Obama appears to be on the verge of reaching the magic 50% plus mark in the polls which if it held to election day would give him the popular vote majority that Bill Clinton was unable to achieve. If you look at the electoral college map on Realclearpolitics.com, it looks depressingly similar to the one that Bob Dole experienced twelve years ago when he lost to Bill Clinton by nearly eight points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

Ironically before I came on board the McCain bandwagon that is exactly the candidate that I was comparing to—the old handicapped war hero whose turn it was to serve as the Republican nominee for President. In fact, McCain is actually the same age as Dole when he ran for President though I certainly believe he has the potential to fare much better than Dole in the election as he is a stronger candidate than Dole and Obama is a weaker one than Bill Clinton was. I believe McCain needs to refocus his campaign on conservative principles and values, champion a free market alternative to the socialist $700 billion bailout plan championed by Obama, while attacking Obama's socialist record in office and lifelong associations with America-hating extremists like Reverend Wright in order to win this thing and he needs to do it fast if he really hopes to be elected as America's 44th President. Frankly, I can't believe that McCain hasn't used Wright to beat up Obama because if he played Wright's speeches enough in ads in key battleground states along with Obama's pledge to decimate America's military and nuclear deterrent, I think it could win him the election. Our only other hope is that the American people are lying about who they will vote for President in an effort to avoid being called racists and that McCain wins in an upset. McCain still has the potential to defy history and win this thing. Let us all pray that he does to save our country from Manchurian candidate Barack Hussein Obama.

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Nervous GOP urges McCain to attack
By: Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin October 1, 2008 08:45 AM EST

John McCain's fade in recent polls, combined with a barrage of negative news coverage during the financial crisis, has leading Republican activists around the country worrying about his prospects and urging his campaign to become much more aggressive against Barack Obama in the remaining month before Election Day.

A flurry of new polls shows Barack Obama gaining in several battleground states – most notably Florida, Pennsylvania and swing states throughout the West. Officials worry early voting, which is under way in important states such as Ohio, is likely to favor Obama in this toxic political climate.

Several state GOP chairmen in interviews urged the McCain campaign to be more aggressive in hitting Obama's vulnerabilities, such as his past relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other problematic associations from Chicago.

But as September turns to October—Wednesday marks 34 days to the Nov. 4 election—it is clear McCain himself is to blame for the most urgent problems. His snap decision to throw himself into the bailout debate has proven disastrous, since his efforts looked late and half-hearted, and many in the GOP ignored his pleas in Monday's House vote.

And his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, initially a political boon, has become a distraction inside and out of the campaign, with top staff now sidelined trying to avoid a debate disaster on Thursday night, officials close to the campaign say.

But some fundamental troubles are outside his control. The forceful emergence of the sour economy as a dominant issue has Republicans worried in general.

Jeff Frederick, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, said he was disappointed with McCain's early performance in the debate when the focus was on the economy. "He really left a lot on the table while Barack Obama was really kind of hitting him."

If this election has taught the campaigns and the press anything, it's to expect the unexpected. So momentum could easily swing suddenly back in McCain's favor, especially if Palin and then McCain do well in the final debates.A top McCain campaign official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "Polls will move and change — especially as interest grows. It's a hard week to judge because of the dramatic shifts in the economy. We continue to be in a very fluid environment."

GOP officials also believe that a sustained attack on Obama's ties to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, scandal-stained businessman Tony Rezko and former radical war protester William Ayers could sway undecided voters.

Among those goading McCain to be more aggressive is Tennessee Republican Party Chairman Robin Smith, who said that "people need to see a gladiator who's willing to defend what exactly he stands for."

"We're not talking, for instance, about the radical associations that Barack Obama has, with Mr. Ayers, Tony Rezko and so on," Smith said. "More could be done."

Murray Clark, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, said he is eager for Obama's "troubling relationships" to be aired in his state. "I think those things will come up in Indiana again and they do have an impact on mainstream voters in Indiana. You call it going negative, [but] whoever ... is in a position to point out these relationships, I think it's helpful."

But right now the economic situation is very troubling for McCain.A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken Monday night found that more than twice as many people blamed Republicans for the defeat of the Wall Street rescue as blamed Democrats (44 percent to 21 percent).

Further, the financial crisis will only exacerbate a right track/wrong track split – one of the statistical north stars of the public mood – that Republicans hoped wouldn't get worse.
"For the first time in American history, at least since Valley Forge, the right track of the country will be in single digits tonight," predicted one longtime GOP strategist after Monday's debacle.
Sure enough, this strategist said that surveys taken since Monday in one of the reddest of red states showed that the right track number there had plummeted to single digits.

Moreover, the saturation attention to the economy – always a weak spot for McCain and for the administration he's tied to – has thwarted his effort to make the race a referendum on Obama, as public attention turns toward a global crisis and away from partisan attacks.

McCain's first signs of life only came after his campaign mocked Obama as a celebrity and sought to make the best of a race that had increasingly been defined by the Illinois Democrat. Then, thanks in part to Palin, McCain pulled even or took a lead in some polls after a convention that savaged Obama and featured only a brief video from President Bush and no appearance at all by Vice President Cheney.

Now, with the financial crisis front and center, Bush has reappeared on the landscape and the race is no longer an Obama referendum.

The damage is registering powerfully on the electoral map and in state and national polling, the officials say. McCain has lost ground in at least eight key swing states, and the officials say his path to victory is so narrow that it allows virtually no room for error.

Recent polls have shown Obama ahead in Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with gains in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and New Mexico.

Two recent national tracking polls – from Gallup and The Hotline – both show Obama enjoying a six-point lead. A Washington Post-ABC News poll out Tuesday night showed Obama with a four-point advantage among likely voters (50 to 46), down from an anomalous nine points the week before.

Some Republicans say they are uncertain of McCain's electoral strategy, wondering why, for example, he's back in Iowa this week, a state few independent analysts see as being in play and where public polls this month show Obama enjoying a double-digit lead even before the economic meltdown. Asked why McCain was in Iowa, one veteran Republican there replied: "Because he's running a senseless, non-strategic campaign. Why else would he come here?"
Despite the grumbling, McCain's political hands say they're making progress on the ground and are nearing or exceeding the apparatus they had in place in 2004. A top Republican National Committee aide said field staffers and volunteers made more phone calls and door knocks last week than at the same point four years ago. The joint campaign-committee Victory effort has over 400 offices in place.

"We have hit every goal we have set," said the aide. "We're on offense in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota," five states that were in the Democratic column in 2004.

It is also possible the bailout will pass, the economy will stabilize and the campaign will shift to other issues. But GOP officials are increasingly pessimistic that the contest will turn away from pocketbook issues. The two biggest concerns they expressed in private: that the economy will dominate voting and that McCain has botched the issue from day one.

That has had the effect of neutralizing what these officials saw as his greatest strength: providing hard-nosed leadership in hard-luck times.

Alexander Burns and Jim VandeHei contributed to this story.

Mission of the Defend Utah Values PAC

The mission of the Defend Utah Values PAC is to elect conservative Republicans to party and public offices. To accomplish this mission, the PAC will raise money to support candidates who stand firm for the principles and values of the Republican Party, including:

Limited, Constitutional government and individual responsibility

Cutting and eliminating taxes, spending, and bureaucracy

Defending traditional marriage between a man and a woman

Protection of individual rights, as granted us by God and protected by the rule of law, including the right to life, the right to bear arms, religious freedom (including the free exercise of religion in our public schools), and parental rights

Parental choice and a free market in educating our children in traditional values

Defending traditional Judeo-Christian moral values, in the belief that good governance is impossible without them

Putting America first with regards to our economic, foreign, trade and national security policies

Providing for a strong national defense and rebuilding our military

Refocusing the mission of our armed forces on defending our nation from enemy attack and securing our ports and borders from illegal invasion and continuing terrorist infiltration

Enforcing our immigration laws and opposing amnesty for illegal aliens

Restoring America’s manufacturing base and increasing our economic independence and energy self-sufficiency

Opposing U.S. involvement in the United Nations, NAFTA, CAFTA, FTAA, GATT/WTO, and the NAU, all of which cede our national sovereignty to international tribunals and foreign bureaucrats

Supporting our troops serving bravely in the Middle East while opposing efforts to employ our armed forces in nation building, global policing and exporting democracy to the nations of the world by direct military force, in recognition of the fact that these costly endeavors serve to weaken our military and leave our country more, not less vulnerable to terrorist attack.